The Planet of Cities: Thoughts on a pandemic

The news around the world has tended to focus on national responses to the crisis. Cities may grow richer and more populous, but nation states still control most economic and fiscal policy, emergency responses, military systems, and the rules of human mobility and migration. In most countries they also determine and/or manage health care systems.

For some, this may appear to contradict the narrative of the ascendant power of ‘city-states’ in the 21st century. In my opinion, there is a mistake in the logic here. Cities are indeed more influential than at any previous point in recent human history, but the urban century (1980–2080) is still a feature of the third century of the nation state. It is how nation states adjust to global urbanisation that really matters, including how far they empower cities themselves. Very few cities actually have the power of states. 

One thing that the pandemic has underlined is that, in times of severe social and economic disruption, the balance of responsibility still tilts towards national leadership.

The countries with the fastest and deepest level of infection are, almost without exception, most impacted in their largest urban centres. The parts of the world that have best managed to contain the outbreak are those that have enacted systematised city responses, using combined national and local powers to do so.

As we observe massive changes in civic laws, citizen behaviours, use of public transport and public space, security systems, and virtual communication it is natural to ask how Covid-19 might change our urban century and its established patterns and trends.

What does history tell us?

The first recorded pandemic afflicted Athens in 430BC. The word itself derives from the Greek pan, meaning all, and demos, meaning people. As if to underline this point, the Athenian pandemic claimed the life of Pericles, hero of the Peloponnesian War. In a similar vein, the Roman Empire lost two emperors to the Antonine Plague of 165BCE–180BCE, while at the absolute zenith of its power. Of course, the people of classical antiquity were poorly equipped to understand or effectively respond to public health emergencies, ascribing the outbreaks to wrathful gods and the poisonous influence of heretical religion.

We may find more cause for hope by looking to early industrial era New York and London. These two cities were already prototypical global metropolises by the time they embarked upon the construction of their extensive sewer networks, still extant, in the 1850s. At the time, cholera terrorised the urban population on either side of the Atlantic Ocean. Improved waste disposal and water management works had such a profound effect on public health that, within 20 years, it had been all but eradicated in both places.

Cities have repeatedly proven themselves to be great innovators in the face of plagues, diseases and epidemics. Urban density increases the visibility of their effects, such immediacy spurs invention. Cites are natural labs for experimentation, enabling rapid transfer of knowledge and the fast sharing of insights and practices.

I think the examples set by London and New York in the 19th century are hugely instructive. The big breakthroughs in public health of that period – not just the sewers, but the invention of the water closet, the creation of municipal waste services, the separation of the sick from the healthy – were all by-products of urbanisation.

It seems likely that Covid-19 is already bringing forward a whole set of new innovations in public health. Italian architect Carlo Ratti, based at MIT, has designed mobile intensive care units constructed from shipping containers. The idea is that the units will be as transportable and easy to assemble as a tent, but with all the biocontainment properties of a hospital ward. Scalability is built into the solution, meaning the size of the “pop-up” ICU can be matched to the severity of the situation in any given location. If the experiment proves successful, it could help to relieve the strain on overstressed healthcare systems across the world and may prove particularly valuable in developing economies.

I’m also seeing a lot of interesting work in the field of transport hygiene. New types of detergents, anti-bacterial products and cleaning fluids are being developed that could greatly reduce the risk of contact infection on public mass transit networks.

There are also many encouraging interventions in the provision of digitalised and ‘tele’ medicine – particularly in cities across Asia, where increasing numbers of patients are accessing care online. In doing so, they are helping to prevent the spread of the virus to health professionals; it goes without saying that we need healthy doctors and nurses more than ever at this time.

We may have been complacent to the threat of a global pandemic; talk of urban resilience has tended to focus on extreme weather events linked to climate change and natural disaster, or malign human actions such as terrorism.

But cities have a proven track record of responding to public health crises and provide our best hope of finding a lasting remedy for Covid-19. We cannot underestimate or downplay the very real human cost of this outbreak, but we equally must not let it undermine our faith in urbanisation.

As we note the role of urban innovation in tackling Covid-19, we must also look ahead to how the virus might shape the next cycle of our urban century. The outbreak has already led to a reduction in travel, energy use and resource consumption, with multiple reports of declining emissions, cleaner air and better water systems. The planet, at least, seems to be breathing more easily. 

So how, and for what, will Covid-19 be a catalyst? What will it mean for personal identity and insurance? How might it change how we use public transport and public space? Could it inspire a new design vernacular for offices, homes and gathering places? How will the effects be felt differently in large and small cities? We can observe already the shift towards a higher use of digital means of communication – will that reshape our cities when the current challenges have been normalised?

Next month we want to assess the likely longer-term impacts of Covid-19 on cities. Now, we invite your contributions.