The Planet of Cities: the rise of a global urban population

Greg Clark, Urbanist
Borane Gille, Head of Cities Innovation, The Business of Cities

For almost 8,500 years, we have embraced population growth, new technologies and the spread of trade and civilisation. We did this first by building, and then, regenerating, cities. A turning point in the global urbanisation process came in 1980 due to the emergence of three connected urbanisation trends.

1. Urban regeneration, revitalisation and renaissance

In developed countries, a re-urbanisation process began following several decades of deindustrialisation where many cities had lost populations and declined. The shift to knowledge, services and innovation economies and the growing mobility of talent fuelled the re-urbanisation process in the global North, with urban renewal and regeneration the means to support this process. Cities began to exert a fresh gravitational pull and could offer a new quality of life, supported by global connections, their cosmopolitan character, and a rich artistic life and vibrancy.

2. Industrialisation led by the ‘Asian Tiger’ economies

At around the same time, the ‘Asian Tiger’ economies (Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea) had demonstrated a new development model. This model was based on export-oriented industrialisation, business-friendly reforms, as well as investment in human capital and infrastructure. The shift to manufacturing in the Asian Tigers subsequently led to better services, innovation and experience as these countries sought to ‘climb the value chain’ by building the cities and infrastructures that could support higher value activity. Inspired by the successes of these states, many developing nations started to pursue the twin paths of industrialisation with urbanisation. These countries rapidly shifted their economies towards manufacturing, attracting international corporates and connecting to globalising value chains. The resulting job opportunities encouraged widespread rural to urban migration in pursuit of work and higher incomes. 

3. War, insecurity and resource scarcity become push factors

In the 1990s, faster urbanisation trends were also occurring in poorer countries. Without the drive of industrialisation, urbanisation in these states was subject to push factors: wars & conflicts, insecurity, resource scarcity, droughts, crop failures, and more. As a result, the migration of people to cities also accelerated.

Inventing urban spaces for ten billion people in 2080

Since 1980, this ‘co-urbanisation’ wave has accelerated, unleashing a 100-year cycle. By 2080, it is estimated that the percentage of humans in cities and towns will have doubled from roughly 40% to 80%, the number of people living in cities will have quadrupled from 2.3 billion to around 9.2 billion – and the range of cities of over 1 million people will have multiplied by six from 275 to about 1,600. In the next column, we will touch on some of the uncertainties about this data and how those projections are changing.

Humankind has been making cities for almost 9,000 years, but urban acceleration in the present century is without precedent. By 2100, projections suggest that almost 10 billion people will live in at least 10,000 larger cities. We are on a great human anthropological trek. We are an urbanising species, building a planet of cities. We don’t know how to do it, so we have to invent it.

Three drivers of urban change

There are three larger sources of tools that come from beyond government policy.

Exponential technologies: AI, digital twins, augmented reality, facial recognition, drones, cameras, sensors and big data, as well as convergence and climate technologies, will help shape our new energy, water, waste, food and construction systems. These new technologies allow us to do more with less, to optimise the city and to reduce the unwanted side effects of urban growth.

Intentional capital: This includes the new modes of money from sustainable finance to climate finance, impact investing and green bonds. The effect of these is to use the costs and logic of capital as a deliberate tool to foster social and climate transition.

Place leadership: Increasingly, we see citizens, universities, hospitals, faith groups, sports clubs and the private sector (especially infrastructure, utilities and real estate providers) being willing to create new shared platforms to combine the leadership of a place with local and metropolitan governments. This might include a business district in transition, a cultural quarter, an innovation hub or a health precinct. But it could also be civic leadership for a whole city or town, a metropolitan area or a wider region.

Ten imperatives for future urban centres
 

1. The speed of the urban acceleration creates a profound urgency that we cannot ignore. We accelerate urbanisation at the same time as we recognise the climate and biodiversity emergencies, the challenge of entrenched poverty and segregation, and the growth of territorial and resource-based conflicts. The mandate for change is massive and we need to become ‘good ancestors’ and adopt ‘cathedral thinking’, in the ways we foster our cities and our planet.
   
   
2. Regional diversity in how urbanisation is playing out over this century is marked. From 1980 to 2080 the urbanisation rate change is much higher in China, ASEAN, Africa, Middle East and India. More urbanised regions such as Oceania, North America, Northeast Asia, Europe and Latin America still gain significant urban populations, but the shape of that urban population growth is more distributed between cities, towns and connected urban regions (see Figure 1).   
   
   
3. Major global imperatives are now becoming urban and metropolitan challenges. We must re-equip cities and metropolitan areas to occupy much larger roles in our lives. There is no larger challenge than the climate imperative, which requires an urban as well as an energy transition.
   
   
4. The choice is not between whether we get urbanisation or not, but whether that urbanisation is good or bad. Good urbanisation is planned, resourced, connected and affordable. It respects planetary boundaries and the carrying capacity of our ecosystems. Bad urbanisation is unplanned, un-resourced and disorganised. It can destroy our ecosystems and limit our future. The affordability of our cities, especially of housing, is a major theme of the current times. Urban population growth has outstripped housing produced (or available) on the private market and housing produced by social and public bodies.
   
   
5. City leadership has become one of the most important roles in our world, but individual city leaders are often underpowered for the tasks faced. Reforms to city governance and powers are needed to address growing challenges, and we are developing more broadly based civic leadership.
   
   
6. The building and operation of cities is now a major global industry that encompasses real estate, infrastructure, utilities, transport and all the associated support sectors that go with them.
   
   
7. Cities are changing shapes and connecting. Polycentric cities, metropolitan areas, regions of cities, mega-regions and larger urban clusters are taking shape. Cities are no longer nucleated with a single centre; instead they are increasingly forming into patterns and networks. A report by the World Bank in 2010 coined the phrase ‘systems of cities’ to describe the interconnected nature of larger and smaller cities with towns and other settlements.
   
   
8. There are new dynamics of competition and new forms of cooperation in, and between, cities. The range of globally competitive cities is rising, as Middle Eastern cities compete for capital and innovation, and North East Asian (Japan and South Korea) cities try to overcome the challenges of an ageing population. Fractured globalisation is giving rise to regional leadership roles for cities such as Singapore, Dubai and São Paulo. The reindustrialisation of North American urban regions since the pandemic, and the growth of climate-related migration to cooler climates, reveal new forms of competition – for more resilient, liveable, and inclusive cities. At the same time, new forms of city collaboration are emerging, which range from networks of neighbouring cities to global groups dedicated to tackling climate change, optimising urban technologies, addressing inequality or reducing urban heat, for example.
   
   
9. Investment into cities and urban systems is also a major dimension of capital allocation for pension funds, sovereign wealth, family offices, insurers and private equity. This is also a key focus for development banks and other international financial institutions.
   
   
10.  There is a global quest for urban innovations that enable cities to grow in ways that optimise space, productivity, enterprise and capital, and at the same time increase resilience, sustainability and inclusion.  This quest seeks to accelerate and absorb emerging technologies, and it is a driver of both competition and collaboration globally. Small agile companies working with larger corporations and institutions are at the heart of this innovation challenge.
     

These ten imperatives shape our planet. They will determine whether we can make our urbanisation path inclusive and broadly accepted, or divisive and conflictual. The outcome is uncertain.    

In the next article in The planet of cities series, we will review whether, with falling birth rates and other factors, we will reach peak numerical human population and peak percentage urbanisation sooner than estimated.