Net zero city: Ten energy system interventions

How will we transform our urban energy systems to renewable, sustainable energy that is free of greenhouses gases? And can it be achieved within a decade? In the last of this three-part series, Langdon Morris, leader and senior partner, InnovationLabs and Farah Naz, director of ESG and innovation, Middle East and Africa, AECOM, highlight five recommendations and five examples from the book Net Zero City of successful energy system interventions.

1.  Audit existing energy sources and uses

The transition to the new energy infrastructure begins with two key steps. First, it’s essential to know where the current supplies of energy are coming from, and then we have to identify the sources from which it will come in the future. And having set the transition targets, we can then begin the detailed process of engineering the effort from today forward. An Energy Audit is a critical first step.

2.  Set targets: ten-year energy sources and uses forecast and goals

Once you know where the energy is coming from and how it’s being used, the next step is to prepare an overview plan that eliminates use of all fossil sources by 2032. The energy industry is evolving rapidly, with new developments occurring on a regular basis, and it’s therefore not going to be useful to designate a highly specific energy mix for ten years in the future, but it is necessary to target the major transition initiatives, just as it’s also essential to forecast demand.

These are not casual forecasts or vague projections, as they will be used by power producers and distributors and by lenders and investors to gauge future market conditions, based on which they’ll make important decisions on investments in the new infrastructure. Governments will have to become involved in these plans, as the energy industry will be looking for assurances that their investments risks will be supported by government policies and initiatives.

3.  Adopt policy for the transition

Policy makers and policy implementers will therefore need to use these targets as broad guidelines within which they may innovate with specific implementation measures to attain the targets. And because the energy industry is tightly regulated, both governance policies and specific regulations have considerable influence on all component elements of the overall energy system, its development, and its transition.

4.  Electrify the economy

The IEA Report forecasts electricity’s overall share of global energy consumption to increase from 20% in 2020 to 49% in 2050, an enormous shift (Figure 1). Their model also proposes that by 2035 all cars sold globally should be electric, which will require a global network of charging stations to be in place by then. In addition, no internal combustion vehicles would remain on the road at all by 2050, which would be the complete demise of the globally iconic ‘gas station’ and its rebirth as the ‘charging station’.

5.  Engage the public in the energy transition

As we have seen with each of the other main themes we’ve addressed here, public engagement will be critical to success, both to support the necessary changes at the policy level, and also to implement the necessary changes at the household, building, and city levels. Therefore, an extensive campaign of public engagement will be an essential part of this effort from the outset.

6.  Dubai: strategy for net zero by 2050

In 2015, Dubai introduced, and now continues to implement, its Clean Energy Strategy, through which it expects to produce 75% of its energy from clean sources by 2050. Its ambitious intent is to eventually have the lowest carbon footprint of any city in the world.  While we suggest that the target date should instead be 2032, the point here is that Dubai does have a strategy, and equally important, it’s fully engaged in implementing the strategy.

7.  USA energy transition model and investment plan

Net Zero America is a highly detailed study of the energy transition in the US that was released as an interim draft in late 2020 by a team at Princeton University. The study calls for at least US$ 2.5 trillion of additional spending over baseline norms and suggests that 1 million new jobs could be created through this effort.

8.  Saudi Arabia: net zero by 2060

In October 2021, Saudi Arabia announced that 2060 is its Net Zero target date. According to Energy Minister HRH Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, the implementation will be based on the Circular Carbon Economy (CCE) strategy. In its submission to the UN, the Kingdom said that by 2030 it would reduce, avoid, and remove 278 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent per year, a 35% reduction of its baseline target.

9. Multinational energy shift

Multinational corporations operating in China have quietly told the government that they will not be opening new manufacturing plants if the electricity supplied to them comes from coal. In the concise words of the EU Chamber of Commerce representative in the northern city of Shenyang, China, ‘If the electricity is coal-based, you can’t build a new plant’. Consequently, the northern Chinese region is investing in wind energy, and indeed a BMW plant there gets two-thirds of its power from wind, and more still from solar. As a result, carbon emissions per vehicle manufactured in the plant declined by a tidy 84% between 2016 and 2021.

10.  Bee’ah: model net zero at the building scale

Located in the Emirate of Sharjah, Bee’ah is the Middle East’s fastest growing environmental management company. Its strong commitment towards the environment and sustainability has been manifested in many ways, including in the unique design of its headquarters building.

Designed by Zaha Hadid Architects and engineered by Atelier Ten and Buro Happold, the project won the prestigious 2018 Green Building Award at Gulf Sustainability and CSR Awards. 

Through detailed energy modelling studies, the building has achieved performance improvements in space cooling that were 50% better than the ASHRAE 90.1 baseline figure for energy efficient design, lighting demand was reduced by 50%, while mechanical equipment power requirements were reduced by 70%.

Summary

The obvious question now is: can we do it? Can we transform the energy system underlying our global economy without wrecking the economy? Or are we destined to sustain our fossil-fuelled economy at the cost of a wrecked planet and a systemic threat to civilization?

The coal, oil, and natural gas lobbies are apparently willing to live amid the wreckage in order to protect their own livelihoods, but the scientific evidence as compiled in the various reports cited here, the IEA, IRENA, Princeton, National Security Council, and Floating Wind Project reports, and others, all tell us that this is not actually the choice we face.

In fact, the fossil fuel economy is already being transformed into a much different economy, largely due to the action of market forces. Solar power plants are now cheaper to build and operate than fossil fuel plants, and if we add in carbon taxes, which economists tell us that we should, then the disparity is decisive.

Thus, the economy and the climate are not in opposition.

What we must do, however, is accelerate this transition process. We cannot wait for market evolution to attain the end point at its own pace, as a century of accumulated CO₂ is now working against all of civilization. A transition process that might normally take thirty to fifty years must be accomplished in a mere decade.

The action priorities are thus as follows:

• Action priority 1:  reduce demand for electricity
• Action priority 2:  shift electricity production to sustainable sources
• Action priority 3:  upgrade the grid
• Action priority 4:  electrify the transport sector
• Action priority 5:  enable, require, and promote energy efficiency

These actions are already clearly understood, and progress is being made in various places on some of them. What’s needed now is wide-scale adoption of these in the laws of every nation. Doing so will thus enable us to answer the question: can we? with a resounding:

‘Yes, we can!’