The key driver of the growth in private sector investment has been the reputed performance of the infrastructure asset class. The perceived stability of infrastructure returns, and the relative underperformance of the bond markets have encouraged new investors in infrastructure and have stimulated expanded allocation strategies among existing investors.
The long-term liability matching obligations of investors (most notably pension funds) are very much aligned with infrastructure investment time horizons and income profiles. The Preqin Unlisted Infrastructure Index demonstrates the long-term strength of the asset class. Over the past 12 years (a typical infrastructure fund life span), Preqin infrastructure has risen from 100 to 255 basis points – on par with the S&P 500 TR (Preqin, 2020).
The extent to which the asset class provides ‘stable’ returns is nonetheless very much premised on the form of exposure to the asset class. Whilst the listed infrastructure sector offers investors liquidity and easy access to the market, the extent to which listed infrastructure mirrors the underlying asset class remains contentious due to the potential impact of stock market volatility. Equally, cash flows are infrequent in the unlisted funds sector. Nonetheless, the strong overall performance of infrastructure funds relative to other forms of private equity investment in this period has added to their appeal.
The scale of the infrastructure challenge ensures considerable scope for private investment. This, in combination with diminishing public resources, ensures the role of the private sector in the financing and provision of infrastructure will continue to evolve and expand. Institutional investors are increasingly paying attention to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors. Many infrastructure subsectors, including renewable energy, housing and healthcare facilities, can provide meaningful and tangible alignment to corporate visions at local, national and international scale – without compromising investment performance.
The Paris Agreement on climate change detailed clear targets, meanwhile in the Energy Roadmap 2050, the European Commission (EC) advocates the view that a secure, competitive and decarbonised energy system in 2050 is possible. Decarbonisation targets and pathways across key industry sectors require a radical reform of infrastructure provision, including the design of carbon neutral assets and the decarbonisation of existing assets. National government commitments to address carbon emissions on the back of the Paris Agreement will serve to further extenuate infrastructure funding need.
Technological innovation will continue to fuel productivity and economic growth and reshape people’s lives. The underpinning infrastructure necessary to enable and support innovation will, in many respects, always be playing ‘catch-up’. Tech innovation is fast paced and in a continuous cycle of evolution. By contrast, the provision of new infrastructure is a protracted process from planning and design through to operationalisation. From the perspective of an infrastructure investor, for example, innovation in sensor technologies has improved the effectiveness of asset management and (in conjunction with robust asset life-cycle management plans) has the propensity to prolong the economic life of infrastructure assets. However, the value and benefits of technology are not fully realised within the confines of planning, designing, constructing and managing the lifecycle of the asset. Moreover, the capacity of technology to foster integration across multi-disciplinary teams and collaboration between the public and private sectors has not been fully optimised.
Specialist debt and equity infrastructure fund provision has culminated in an expanded and increasingly diverse range of investment opportunities within the infrastructure sector. Such is the nature and range of private sector investment products (which occupy all dimensions of the risk-return curve) that the misalignment between investment vehicles and greenfield asset development opportunities has been somewhat mitigated. Concerted progress towards addressing the infrastructure investment gap by governments will create further infrastructure investment opportunities for the private sector. The key challenge will be to adequately ‘match’ investor risk-return profiles and expectations with suitable infrastructure opportunities. The most significant challenge remains the mobilisation of the infrastructure project development pipeline.
As the infrastructure market matures, deal structures have become increasingly sophisticated. Financial engineering is more prominent, depicting a ‘new-found’ confidence in the asset class. Bespoke debt and equity funds compliment the more conventional infrastructure investment fund models, whilst the increased integration of short-term and long-term finance serves to enhance the financial flexibility afforded to investors in infrastructure funds, even complex greenfield projects. For investors seeking long-term, income-producing opportunities, greenfield developments provide early access to projects that will ultimately mature into such assets. For those investors who can effectively manage construction and commission risk, developing new assets ensures access to long-term investments (and their associated yields) at a much lower price than acquiring assets through secondary market transactions. For investors with shorter time horizons, the highly active and competitive secondary market affords liquidity as well as compelling risk-return dynamics.