BCIS five-year civil engineering forecast

Civil Engineering Tender Prices are expected to rise between 6% and 7% in the year to 4th quarter 2021.

Strong growth in output in the sector, together with rising input costs, primarily as a result of sharp materials cost increases have put pressure on prices.

Materials cost pressures and logistics problems are likely to be resolved over the next year however labour shortages will put pressure on site rates.

Civil engineering tender prices are expected to rise by 4.0% in the year to 3rd quarter 2022.

With infrastructure output remaining at historically high levels, but site labour rates moderating, it is anticipated that civil engineering tender prices will rise by around 3% to 4% per annum over the remainder of the forecast period.

The main points in the forecast are:

• Civil engineering tender prices in 3rd quarter 2021 rose by 0.7% compared with the previous quarter and by 7.2% compared with a year earlier. Civil engineering tender prices will rise by 22% over the forecast period (3rd quarter 2021 to 3rd quarter 2026)
  
• Materials prices rose by 4% in 3rd quarter 2021 compared with 2nd quarter 2021, and by 15% compared with a year earlier. The main risks to materials prices will be difficulty in obtaining materials, oil prices, tariffs on imports and sterling exchange rates
  
• Civil engineering costs rose by 3.5% in 3rd quarter 2021 compared with the previous quarter, and by 8.6% compared with a year earlier. Costs will rise by 15% over the forecast period (3rd quarter 2021 to 3rd quarter 2026)
  
• Infrastructure construction output will rise by 23% (2020 to 2025), however, this increase is distorted somewhat by the fall in 2020
  
• The forecast is based on information available up to 12 January 2022
  

(annual percentage change)

Source: ONS, BCIS
The full forecast and commentary are published in the Briefing section of the Civil Engineering Costs and Forecasts online service.