Commercial property: positivity post-election, now on hold for the budget?

RICS UK Commercial Property Monitor, Q3 2024

• Anecdotal commentary suggests parts of the market are waiting to hear the budget before committing
• 44% feel the market has shifted towards the early stages of an upturn
• Small increase in occupier demand over the quarter

The commercial property market in the UK is still seeing an underwhelming market backdrop, as, anecdotally, respondents to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) UK Commercial Property Monitor Q3 2024 are seeing an element of waiting for the budget.

Some of the positivity seen in the last quarter has been maintained, with another small increase in occupier demand and 44% of respondents citing the early stages of an upturn, but there is yet to be any marked improvements in sentiment.

Occupier demand saw a net balance of +5% in Q3, with industrial property again outperforming other sectors. Although, the net balance of +14% is not as strong as the average over the past decade (+28%) and again, anecdotal commentary in some regions has seen a slowdown for this type of property.  Office demand and retail are relatively flat, but retail sees the least negative sentiment since 2022.

As the market hovers, there has been a rise in vacant office and retail space and landlords have opted to raise incentive packages.

For the twelve months ahead, rental projections remain mixed, but across prime space in all sectors rents are expected to rise. Prime sustainable office space remains attractive to occupiers over less sustainable properties.

Investment continues a flat trajectory across all sectors with the most positivity seen for industrial (+14%), while the picture for retail and offices is slightly negative.

Captured through an extra question in the Q3 survey, a net balance of +29% of respondents report that there has been an increase in the level of distressed sales over the past twelve months with landlords unable to pay mortgages due to an increase in interest rates. Looking ahead, distressed sales are expected to rise by a net balance of +42% of contributors. Drilling deeper into the results, retail (64%), office (48%) and leisure (38%) were the most widely cited sectors thought to be susceptible to an increase in forced sellers over the year to come.

RICS Senior Economist, Tarrant Parsons, said:  “The UK commercial property market continues to exhibit a relatively underwhelming performance, as some respondents cite a wait and see approach ahead of the first budget statement from the new Government.

“Despite the market being on tenterhooks for any new announcements, there are reasons to be more optimistic. An improving lending environment is likely to provide support to commercial real estate investment activity going forward, and headline capital value and rental growth expectations are also modestly positive for the coming twelve months, in keeping with the idea that the market has shifted into the early stages of an upturn.”

-ENDS-

Commentary from survey respondents regionally can be found in the economic pdf on the back pages – you are free to use these.

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